Dual Process Theory & WYSIATI
"What you see is all there is"
Core Thesis of the Model
Our brains spin coherent causal narratives from sparse fragments of information while remaining blind to missing data.
Mechanism & Architecture
System 1 is lightning-fast and intuition-driven but riddled with cognitive biases. System 2 requires slow, deliberate statistical discipline.
Practical Application (Apply Today)
Perform a pre-mortem on an upcoming major decision: assume failure occurred and trace three hidden root causes.
Books Exploring This Model (2)
Related Mental Models
Margin of Safety
The most critical part of any plan is having a plan for when reality refuses to follow your plan.
Inversion & First Principles
Complex dilemmas are often unsolvable head-on; invert the problem and ask how to guarantee failure, then prevent it.
Second-Order Thinking
Shallow thinkers evaluate immediate first-order consequences. Strategic masters evaluate what follows those consequences years later.